Underdog Effect is the tendency of audiences and consumers to support, like and buy from a competitor who is seen as disadvantaged and unlikely to win [1]. An underdog is a person or group in a competition who is largely expected to lose [2]. In sports media the label is a story frame: it can raise sympathy, attention and loyalty before a ball is kicked [1][3].
Key points
- Observers’ support for a competitor increased when it was framed as an underdog, in studies of Olympic matches and of a political conflict [1].
- Perceived effort mediates the liking: people credit a team they believe to be an underdog with more effort [1]. Low expectations alone do not win support if a positive outcome is not seen as deserved [1].
- Underdog-labelled entities are seen as warmer, and no less competent, than frontrunners [4].
- In marketing, an underdog brand biography can raise purchase intentions, real choice and brand loyalty [3].
Origin
The word “underdog” was first recorded in the second half of the 19th century, and its first meaning was “the beaten dog in a fight” [2]. The effect itself was tested in social psychology by Vandello, Goldschmied and Richards (2007), who showed that framing a competitor as an underdog increased support for it [1]. Goldschmied and Vandello then studied the label in politics [4] and in how it shapes expectations of performance [5]. Paharia, Keinan, Avery and Schor (2011) brought the idea into marketing under the name “underdog effect” [3].
How it works in sports media
Commentary, previews and documentaries often present one side as the underdog. The research suggests why this works. People attribute more effort to a team they believe to be an underdog, and that perceived effort mediates liking [1]. When targets were labelled as underdogs, participants predicted they would perform significantly better than expected [5].
The frame has limits. In a hypothetical sporting event, participants supported a team with a low probability of success and labelled it an underdog unless it had greater resources than its opponent, so low expectations alone do not win support if a positive outcome is not seen as deserved [1]. Brands use the same logic: the effect is mediated by consumers’ identification with the brand, is greater for consumers who see themselves as underdogs, and is stronger in cultures where underdog narratives are part of the national identity [3].
Examples
Leicester City’s 2016 Premier League title is the standard example. The pre-season odds were 5,000:1, and the title has been called arguably the biggest upset in the history of professional sports [6]. The Play of Values articles on what drives popular sports and on what makes a good coach mention underdog runs in football and basketball.
Common questions
What is an underdog?
A person or group in a competition who is largely expected to lose. The favourite is the side expected to win, and if the underdog wins, the outcome is an upset [2].
Does the underdog label always win support?
No. Low expectations alone do not win support if a positive outcome is not seen as deserved; a team with greater resources was not labelled an underdog [1].
Does it work outside sport?
Yes. Political candidates labelled as underdogs are seen as warmer and no less competent than frontrunners [4], and brands with an underdog biography can increase purchase intentions and loyalty [3].
Related terms
- Sports storytelling — the narrative frames, such as the underdog, that media put around events
- Fan identification — the bond with a team that identity-based underdog appeal builds on
- Fan loyalty — lasting support, which underdog stories can strengthen
- Fan engagement — how audiences take part in and follow competitions
- Rivalry — the contests in which underdog roles often appear
- Hype — the build-up of attention before an event
Read more on Play of Values
- What drives the most popular sports
- What makes a good sports coach
- Marketable athletes over winning
- Ted Lasso and sports marketing
Sources
- Vandello, J. A., Goldschmied, N. P., & Richards, D. A. R. (2007). The appeal of the underdog. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 33(12), 1603–1616. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167207307488
- Wikipedia. (2026). Underdog. Wikipedia. Link
- Paharia, N., Keinan, A., Avery, J., & Schor, J. B. (2011). The underdog effect: The marketing of disadvantage and determination through brand biography. Journal of Consumer Research, 37(5), 775–790. https://doi.org/10.1086/656219
- Goldschmied, N., & Vandello, J. A. (2009). The advantage of disadvantage: Underdogs in the political arena. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 31(1), 24–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/01973530802659810
- Goldschmied, N., & Vandello, J. A. (2012). The future is bright: The underdog label, availability, and optimism. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 34(1), 34–43. https://doi.org/10.1080/01973533.2011.637726
- Hood, M., Chittenden, W., & Jewell, R. T. (2018). Never tell me the odds: The stingy odds for Leicester City to win the English Premier League. The Journal of Prediction Markets, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v12i1.1447